We have been predicting for the last two years that there will be a shortage of properties to sell, as the building industry has been decimated in recent years, and the demise of some finance companies has meant there has been no finance available for new stock. Nor have the major banks been interested in financing new residential developments, despite being awash with money!
There comes a time when people start looking at the low returns from bank on deposits, and start considering investment properties as better security, also first home buyers are taking advantage of the lowest interest rates for 40 years!
So where is the market headed? The huge shortage of rental accommodation has pushed rents up by 10 percent, and a continuing shortage is likely to push them up by another 10 percent in January-February 2012.
The other factor putting pressure on housing stocks is the Australian economy, which is predicted to shed 100,000 jobs between now and Christmas. It stands to reason that Kiwi workers in Oz will be affected by the tough economic and employment climate, but how many? It may be as high as 25,000 – and many of them will return home.
Our housing shortage will continue for the next two to three years and consequently house prices will rise substantially.
Economist, Tony Alexander, says that by the time dwelling consents in NZ get back to an issuance level comparable with our population growth, we’ll be 45,000 dwellings behind. This will place extra upward pressure on prices, especially in Auckland which is showing the strongest price gains.
The most positive move for buyers, investors and sellers alike is that NZ is in a good position to survive the international crisis, and will be ‘first cab off the rank’ in terms of sustainable recovery.
The climate for investment has reached the point where public pressure has caused us to start-up our Investment Seminars again.
The demand is starting to grow.
